The Sports Bank, NBC5 Street Team
From sports talk radio to internet comment threads to discussions held at sports bars, the Cubs’ Alfonso Soriano is a hot topic. Whether it’s positive or negative, depends on the week, or sometimes the day. Last Wednesday night, the Cubs leadoff hitter was a hero and local deity after driving in the winning run with a walk-off single. A week from this past Sunday he was a goat and pariah after he dropped a routine fly ball during the final inning of a loss at Pittsburgh. Oh the polarity! Does this experience seem familiar? It should, because of the season Bears quarterback Rex Grossman had in 2006. When Grossman was good, he was phenomenal, setting Bears franchise passing records and leading the NFL with seven 100+ passer rating games. “Bringing Rexyback” was even the September NFC Player of the Month. However, when he was bad, he was an abysmal “Train Rex,” producing five games with a sub-50 passer rating. This included a 0.0 in the season finale. If you’re unfamiliar with this statistic, let’s just say that you could take a random QB out of a Chicago Social Club flag football league, put him in the NFL and he would really have to try to screw up to get a 0.0 passer rating. Rex was like Forrest Gump’s description of life and a box of chocolates: you never now what you’re gonna get.
2008 Soriano is currently the Cubs version. During his injury-plagued April, he hit .192 with just 2 HR and 5 RBI. He just finished a May (.339, 10 HR, 29 RBI) that might earn him an MLB player of the month award. And I thought the girls I dated in graduate school were unstable. So is the real Alfonso Soriano…an oft-injured $136 million dollar mistake who insists on hitting leadoff despite his subpar on-base percentage and perhaps the worst defensive left-fielder in the game today? Or is he the most exciting bat in the Cubs lineup, a powerful slugger capable of carrying a team for a whole month like he did during September of last year’s division title season? The correct answer is d.) all of the above. Grossman and Soriano are described by many different adjectives, just not “predictable.”
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Have to disagree with the Rex Grossman comparison… Rex has proven himself over a series of several season to be an inconsistent performer. It’s too early to write the book on Soriano, after less than two seasons on the North side.. do you think the Cubs would have even made the playoffs without him in the lineup last year? If you check the stats, the Cubs record is better with him in the lineup — batting leadoff — than without. It makes me sick to see the bandwagon cubs fans jeer him one day and cheer the next…
I should have mentioned 2007 Rex Grossman being very different from ’06 Grossman. The Rex of last season would be like…Michael Wuertz or someone equally as bad. ’03-’05 Grossman was injured all the time.
During the NFC Championship year, Rexy actually set numerous Bears franchise passing records, (and not for interceptions or something like that) and he was a very big part of why they started so hot and went as far as they did.
Mostly, it’s the way the fans here view both of them (and how those perceptions shift so extremely from day-to-day) that I find so similar.
And I agree that Soriano carried the Cubs during the September stretch run last season.
Maybe the reason the bandwagoners are so harsh on Soriano is because his contract is the largest in Cubs history. I’m certainly not saying they should act this way, but it might explain why they do
Actually, I think it’s the bandwagoners who like Soriano because the only thing that registers through their drunken stupor at Wrigley is the occasional home run.
Marcus, yes, they would have made the playoffs without Soriano last year, over the course of an entire season. They play in a relatively weak division and the Brewers saw their pitching absolutely implode the last half of the season, which has carried over into this season.
I personally witnessed Soriano dropping the can of corn like a new bagboy in Pittsburgh — it was painful, a Brant Brown kind of moment. Did Santo go “oh noooooooo” from the depths of his soul this time? That being said, statistically, he is not the worst defensive left fielder despite some very stupid plays. He’s near the top of the league in assists every year because he has a deceptively good arm despite the lack of respect from baserunners and 3rd base coaches. He was also near the top in range factor (yes, one of those geeky sabermetric stats that infuriate the type of baseball cavemen who vote for Derek Jeter for the Gold Glove every year despite all the evidence he has almost no range). What compounds the frustration about his defense is plays like the one in Pittsburgh — do outfielders not wear sunglasses anymore?
That being said, and I don’t know the geeky statistical evidence for this yet, there’s no doubt Soriano’s history of leg injuries has severely compromised his speed and (one would presume) his range and he probably should be lifted for a defensive replacement late in close games after blowing a couple. The stupid allure of the speed-power combination (the Felix Pie/Corey Patterson dream will never become a reality) is only half-there now for Soriano. He’s the rare little guy who has proven he can consistently hit for power, but he’ll never be the stolen base threat he was again. Know what you’re getting with him: an exciting but streaky power hitter and physically declining, aging athlete who doesn’t draw walks with occasional lapses on defense.
People get emotional about hot streaks and cold streaks without looking at a player overall, on balance. Soriano will always be a streaky player who will have terrible slumps where he strikes out constantly and then one or two good months where he hits a bunch of home runs. He will never be a consistently awesome hitter or A-level superstar the way Albert Pujols or Lance Berkman is because he doesn’t have the plate discipline or hitting eye to make pitchers make mistakes on a daily basis over 162 games. Soriano is still a very good player, one who will hit 30-35 homers (20-25 of them solo homers if he continues to hit leadoff), throw out 15 runners a year, strike out almost 100 times a year, and drive in about 80 runs (assuming he continues to hit leadoff) with a less-than-impressive on-base percentage around .320 or .330 and an on-base plus slugging in the high .800s, indicating he’s a very good player but not worth the $18 million a year superstar contract level. He’s not and never will be a superstar. Accept that and accept that along with the home runs, you’ll get a lot of frustrating cold stretches, strikeouts, and swings at bad pitches.
I don’t get the “comfort level” argument about hitting Soriano leadoff either. He wasn’t comfortable with playing left field either, but he adjusted when forced to do it. You hit a player enough times in a new spot in the lineup and he’ll return to his customary production over the course of time — I have no doubt his recent hot streak would have taken place even if he was hitting 5th in the lineup. Clearly, hitting him leadoff is dumb. A lot of his home runs every year are wasted as solo home runs, he has less RBI chances due to the pitcher hitting in front of him, and last year had less RBIs than any other player hitting a comparable number of home runs. Oh yeah, that and he doesn’t get on base nearly as most of the rest of the lineup or steal bases anymore. Lou knows it’s dumb and that moving him down in the lineup would probably mean more runs and maybe close to 100 RBIs for Sori, but the issue of the “superstar player” ego is what should make fans annoyed. Brenly’s right. He’s not a superstar player despite his superstar contract. So why a superstar ego, especially when you have a veteran, respected manager and a winning ballclub with multiple star-level players?
The biggest reason the Cubs are winning this year is solid starting pitching (thank you, Ryan Dempster), better relief pitching (Marmol is a God) and one big offensive difference: on-base percentage. The Cubs lead the NL by a significant amount thanks to perhaps unintentionally smart signings of solid on-base players like Fukudome and DeRosa and the emergence of home-grown on-base machines like Soto, who looks to be a perennial all-star, and very solid offensive players like Ryan Theriot. They were at or near the very bottom of the NL in on-base for the few years before last year where they didn’t win very many games. Hendry didn’t go Moneyball and doesn’t seem to have any consistent philosophy as a GM the way Billy Beane or Theo Epstein do, but he’s (maybe accidentally) built a much more patient team based on walks, on-base, and pitches seen per at bat. And it’s no coincidence that the Cubs are winning as a result. Soriano’s hot streak is nice, but statistically, he’s still around his usual high .800s on-base plus slugging level and will be at the end of the year. You can count on it.
Grossman isn’t as big of a riddle as you think either. Generally, with a few exceptions, he made a living destroying weak defenses and got destroyed by stronger ones. Football is more a game of emotion and motivation than baseball is and I’m sure his preparation and concentration are better sometimes than others, but it’s not so unusual to say that an average or slightly-above-average quarterback will have some days where he looks very good and some where he looks very bad rather than playing merely average in all his games. The problem with Grossman is his proclivity to turn the ball over, which seems to be the number one issue the Bears have at QB. On balance, he’ll never be a superstar player.
I should say they would have made the playoffs last year without Soriano if you replaced him with a decent left fielder, which you certainly could for $18 million (maybe a player or three). He got hot late last year, but I see no evidence (based on his past playoff experience with the Yankees) that he’s a particularly “clutch” hitter.
That’s a very bad article about my man A. S. These last two weeks Alfonso has won games for the cubs, and by the way I’m also a fan of Rex G. but A. S. is more consistent then rex.
Let’s just hope 2008 Soriano doesn’t end up playing like 2007 Rex Grossman… then Cubs fans are truly screwed
I actually gotta agree with you about Soriano. He’s been like this his whole career. He’s streeky like Sammy Sosa, but actually makes Sammy look like a gold glove outfielder. He was a big part of the Cubs success last year and so far this year, but his defense is shamefull for a major league player. Grossman needs to be let loose and be Grossman. He became worse once the coaching staff tried to change him into a “safe” possesion QB. But bottom line is, Cubs are the best team in baseball, and I am happy drinking my Cubbie Kool Ade!
As a fan of MLB the Cubs were well aware of what they were getting when they paid Soriano all that cash. It is the exact reason a player who has hit at least 30 HRs and stolen 18 SBs every year since 2001 has been worn four different uniforms.
He’s the best and the worst of a superstar player. He has a great slugging % but an average on-base %. With the Nationals in 2006, he led the team in errors and outfield assists.
It’s a stretch Mr. Banks but I can see your point. The bottom line is, the Cubs have more weapons to bail them out right now when Alfonso drops an easy pop fly or strains his hamstring doing a hop. It remains to be seen how Capt. Neckbeard will do.
Didn’t Soriano start out playing the infield? Perhasp he’d be better there although the Cubs fat with infielders.
Gotta keep him in the line-up though for when his bat gets hot. Just wish his precious psyche wouldn’t get screwed up if Piniella were to move him out of the lead-off spot. Theriot or Fukudome should be lead-off.
Bursar,
I see you agree with me that Soriano strikes out too much and doesnt draw enough walks. bad for a true leadoff hitter. I see that Craig here agrees with us that Soriano is really acting like a diva in demanding that he hit leadoff only. He has so much power its a shame to see all those wasted RBI opportunities.
Hungry Z,
thanks for having my back on this one. btw, I was just telling The Local Tourist the other day how Hungry Z is the coolest name ever. maybe even cooler than the name Kimbo Slice
If I know anything, it’s food and Chicago sports. It’s nice to have some sports conversation around here. As for the name, I appreciate it. Anyone one who knows me, knows that’s the best way to describe me.
Naywri,
I’m sorry you feel that way, but I didn’t say that Alfonso Soriano is Rex Grossman. comparing an 11 year vet with 6 all-star appearances to a guy with one roller coaster season, one awful season, and bits and pieces from three other pro seasons is quite a stretch! and never my intention. I said Fonsi’s ’08 season is a lot like Rexy’s ’06 campaign, the emotional reactions and the fickleness of many Chicago fans to both are remarkably similar.
ex. Last night I was watching Chicago Tribune Live and Comcast Sports Net’s Dan Plesac said almost the same exact thing I did….”a couple weeks ago, people wanted to put him on their dartboard and just fire away. now this week, he’s the talk of all of baseball”
And when Soriano had his Brant Brownesque moment dropping a routine flyball in Pittsburgh, Cubs announcer Bob Brenly exclaimed “you can find anyone on that bench and they could play left field better than Soriano.”
grossman had some initial success followed by a long stretch of subpar play. soriano has always been what he is-a streaky hitter with a suspect glove who subscribes to the, “you don’t get off the island by taking walks,” theory. you have to love the comments that are longer than the original story.